No Ordinary Curve: the thick of spreading thin

What is the curve? Social media, the news, and everyone seems to be talking about 'flattening the curve' and how it ties in to social distancing. The curve is the projected number of patient who will contract the disease over an amount of time. It is not a hard number, but an extrapolation of the velocity of how the virus will spread over a period of time. We have the luxury of looking at other countries who have had their curves done and we can study and follow recommendations if they were able to survive the viral summit, hopefully well on their way to complete recovery as a nation.

Now, the curve can take a sharp and steep shape which shows how fast people are getting infected over a period of time and this usually takes a matter of weeks and usually the steep the incline, that means more people get infected in a short amount, of time, the steeper the decent as well. This is because as more people get afflicted, the virus would have already infected everyone. The curve can also take a slower and more gradual incline and that would mean people are catching the virus slower and over an extended period of time. And at this point, this is what we are striving for.

Our healthcare system, has a limited capacity for space, beds, ventilators, and manpower. So we have a hard number as to where we will hit a critical point where the next patient needing services we will not be able to take care of. Healthcare workers will also start getting exhausted (and getting sick and dying), protective gear will be scarce, and hard choices will have to be made. That means, triaging patients, and turning them away. Now, the reason we want to flatten the curve meaning have a more gradual incline is to basically avoid this, exhausting our healthcare and medical capacity to care for the sick. Remember, these are numbers only for COVID-19 infected patients, we haven't taken into account other patients who will need beds, a room, the operating room, the ER, more doctors like: childbirth, people needing cancer medication, other surgical procedures, etc. Flattening the curve assures us that our healthcare system can take care of EVERYONE. We cannot stop the virus. We have no vaccine, and we have no safe medication at this point medically proven to combat this virus. Our best bet is to make sure this curve is flat so we conserve resources enough that we are able to get through the curve being able to treat everyone who needs medical succor.

What can we do to flatten the curve? This is where social distancing comes into play. We need to stay home. This is the reason why public events were cancelled, theaters temporarily closed, and restaurants are only on take out basis. We need to wash our hands frequently, be careful and keep more than 6-10 feet away from each other, go out of the house for just groceries and medical visits, basically STAY HOME. And this isn't for us, this is for everyone.

Again, stay home, stay safe, stay healthy.

Doc Lance